Atome: Feeding The Future

Global food demand is set to rise sharply as the world population heads toward 10 billion by 2050, yet fertiliser production remains a major source of emissions. ATOME is tackling both challenges with its Villeta project, which from 2028 is expected to produce up to 260,000 tonnes of clean fertiliser every year. This directly reduces reliance on carbon-intensive alternatives while ensuring stable food supplies. By combining environmental benefits with strong market demand, ATOME is positioned at the intersection of two powerful global trends: food security and decarbonisation.

Villeta is more than just a one-off project. With experienced partners already in place and long-term agreements secured, the plant serves as a blueprint that can be replicated in other markets. Villeta itself is already significantly de-risked, with a fixed-price EPC contract signed, funding support from global institutions, and a long-term offtake now finalised, and is approaching major near-term catalysts including FID and construction. ATOME is already progressing expansion opportunities in Paraguay, Costa Rica, and beyond, using the same development model. Each new project adds scale, lowers risk, and enhances ATOME’s long-term revenue potential. In simple terms, Villeta proves the concept, and the growth runway across Latin America is wide open.

Despite clear progress, ATOME’s market value today remains well below the estimated worth of its projects. This gap offers investors an attractive entry point before revenues begin to flow. The company’s leadership, including its Chairman and CEO, hold meaningful stakes in the business, ensuring their interests are directly aligned with shareholders. On top of this, global backers such as Hy24 and the Green Climate Fund have already committed significant support, strengthening both project economics and credibility. With strong alignment and external validation in place, ATOME offers the rare combination of undervaluation and long-term growth.

• Definitive offtake agreement signed with Yara (September 2025): Secures 100% of Villeta’s output for 10+ years with the global leader in crop nutrition, marking the final commercial milestone before project finance close and construction.

• Project Funding & Green Light: Reaching financial close will confirm that full project funding is in place and construction can begin. This is the milestone that officially moves Villeta from planning into delivery, a point where the market could significantly re-rate ATOME.

  
  

• $50m Green Climate Fund Support: The Green Climate Fund has already committed $50 million, providing international validation and lowering the cost of financing. This backing not only reduces risk but also boosts confidence from future partners and investors.

• Start of construction at Villeta in late 2025 or early 2026: Breaking ground on the project would be a visible signal of execution progress. Early construction work, especially by credible EPC partner Casale, would increase confidence in the timeline and capital discipline.
  

• Announcements of formal PPAs and site control for Yguazu and Costa Rica projects: Advancing these two pipeline projects into formal development will validate ATOME’s ability to replicate the Villeta model. Securing low-cost renewable energy and regulatory support in these markets will enhance the strategic value of the pipeline.

• First commercial production from Villeta in 2028, generating $65–70m p.a. free cash: Initial cash flows from Villeta would prove the commercial economics of green CAN at scale and transition ATOME from developer to operator, supporting valuations on a cash flow basis.
  
  

• Progress on second and third projects, with scaled EBITDA potential above $230m by 2030: As Yguazu and Costa Rica mature, investor focus will shift to total group EBITDA potential. Delivering on the second and third projects could more than triple the cash flow base and cement ATOME’s position as a category leader in green fertiliser.
  
  

• The development of ATOME POWER, a new 400MW solar power business in Paraguay, still early stage but with potential for long-term revenue: The new division leverages ATOME’s renewable energy expertise and could provide an additional income stream alongside fertiliser production.

ATOME’s strategy hinges on bringing in project-level equity investors and securing debt at the asset level, with the parent company maintaining minority stakes. While this capital-light model preserves optionality, it also leaves the company dependent on favourable capital markets and investor appetite. Any failure to close funding rounds on target could delay progress or force less favourable terms. Moreover, if additional capital is needed at the holdco level, equity raises could dilute existing shareholders, especially if share price remains disconnected from net asset value.

Although ATOME has taken strong steps to de-risk Villeta through fixed-price EPC contracts and partnerships with experienced firms like Casale, infrastructure projects of this scale and complexity often face unexpected challenges. Potential delays in permitting, supply chain issues, or construction overruns could push out the commercial operation date beyond 2028. Furthermore, as a first-of-its-kind green fertiliser plant, Villeta has no direct peer benchmark, which adds uncertainty to cost control, commissioning timelines, and early operational performance.

ATOME’s revenue model depends on long-term demand and pricing for CAN fertiliser, which can be influenced by a wide range of factors including commodity prices, global agricultural cycles, and geopolitical dynamics. Although the Yara offtake includes pricing mechanisms to offer downside protection, these are not fully disclosed. If global fertiliser markets face supply gluts, or if green premiums are slower to develop than expected, the project's economics could face downward pressure, particularly in early years.