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Bawag Group is an Austrian listed bank that since its IPO in 2017 has transformed itself into an SME and retail focused bank that focuses on the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and the Netherlands. Via extraordinary levels of tech spend investment and targeted acquisitions they have become the most digitally capable bank in Europe. Financially, they are one of the highest ROE banks - skilled at converting \"dry powder\" surplus capital generated into either accretive M&A or returning generous amounts of capital to shareholders. In the past six months they have closed on two acquisitions which they expect will materially uplift earnings power and reset their war chest to use again to pursue acquisitions or special capital management.

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Since their IPO in 2017, BAWAG has transformed itself into one most profitable banks in Europe, posting annual returns on tangible capital >20% (26% in 2024). This transformation has included: improved expense efficiency (cost income from 47% to 33%); a loan mix shift to SME/retail clients and lower risk secured lending; and becoming a high asset quality bank (with non-performing loans <1%). Their niche geographic focus on (DACH/NL) countries is attractive, as most equity investors have limited exposure to these economies. Looking forward, BAWAG expects to deliver >20% RoTCE even if the ECB reduces policy rates further.

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BAWAG has taken advantage of the fragmented state of the European banking market to create idiosyncratic value. Since 2015, they have closed 14 deals = 11 SME/retail banks in DACH/NL, 1 in the US and 2 wind-down portfolios in Western Europe. They have cranked up M&A over the past six months, spending EUR 600 mil in the aggregate on two deals that they project together could uplift the group's pretax earnings power by ~35% by 2027.

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BAWAG prioritizes being a proactive steward of capital, in terms of protecting capital (via loan book de-risking) and by deploying surplus capital into M&A or capital management. In terms of capital management, since their IPO, they have returned 45% of their market cap (or EUR 3bn) to shareholders. Their 55% dividend payout is equivalent to a 7% dividend yield. The optionality of what comes next is back on the table as the bank expects its surplus capital to expand dramatically (375 bps of annual CET1 generation in 2025-2027) to the point of having EUR 1bn of excess capital to play with by YE 2027.

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Synergies and enhanced earnings power from recent acquisitions

The next 12-24 months are about integrating/creating value from the two recent deals (Knab and Barclays Consumer Bank Europe) and about the company rebuilding its surplus capital position with an eye towards the next capital allocation opportunity.

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More M&A or money returned to shareholders as excess capital builds

Their surplus capital is expected to expand substantially (annual CET1 expansion to expand tp ~ 375bps a year). Future acquisitions or a share buyback are both on the table as the company plans to make use of excess capital above a 13% CET1 ratio.

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Further stock re-rating for high ROE, low risk, high DPS yield stock

BAWAG's valuation, both absolute and relative to the sector, could re-rate if they achieve targets for their current business and create value from redeploying surplus funds in line with what they have done in the past.

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The European bank sector is exposed to the full gauntlet of macro risk, ranging from recessions, to credit-driven blow-ups, to sovereign & geopolitical turmoil, to regulatory overhang. Fortunately, this sector has been the beneficiary of several receding macro risks = reduced sovereign risk across periphery Europe and a possible pending solution to the Ukraine war. The Euro banks sector has so far also managed to shrug off the building dark clouds brought on by the current trade/tariff war and US recession fears. More specific to BAWAG, it is worth monitoring how costly (in potential refunds) the ongoing investigation into their processing fees on Austrian consumer loans could end up being.

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Being a consolidator brings to Bawag both the execution risk of delivering promised value on their completed deals and the pressure to find more good deals that can move the needle. Case and point - contribution expectations from BAWAG, two recent deals are very substantial and while investors await news on where the company will utilize current surplus capital on additional acquisitions.

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The European bank sector has been one of the best in global equity markets since the ECB began raising rates in July 2022. Investors are now digesting the headwinds to bank revenue growth from lower ECB policy rates (down from 4% peak to current 2.5% and headed lower) and also what it means for bank stock valuations (which are not expensive relative to their US banking peers).

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BAWAG has transformed from an Austrian bank (with a post office network) in its pre-IPO days to a bank focused 90% on the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) and the Netherlands. As a tactical consolidator, BG has been able to take advantage of these fragmented banking markets and the fact that many large European financial institutions have consumer subsidiaries that lack critical mass in DACH/NL countries. These countries are all well suited to their retail/SME focus, with both low unemployment and high levels of home ownership in each market.

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Since its IPO, BAWAG has emphasized becoming a bank with a concise physical branch network and strong digital capabilities, consistent with its current 80 advisory branches that are capable of servicing a loan book of > EUR 50 billion. They spend 30% of their annual opex budget on technology spend and 90% of their bank products are digitized. The recent acquisition of Knab in the NDL, a digital platform for mortgage lending/deposits, should take their digital competency up another level.

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