Doosan: Hidden Desalination Play

Doosan just launched the world's first commercial-scale solid oxide fuel cell manufacturing facility in July 2025, positioning it uniquely to capitalize on exploding AI datacenter power demand. Unlike traditional fuel cells, SOFCs operate at higher efficiency and can run on multiple fuel sources, making them ideal for grid-independent stationary power applications where reliability and carbon reduction are paramount. While Bloom Energy dominates with 44% global market share, Doosan ranks second globally and leads in Asia, giving it pole position as the SOFC market explodes from $1 billion today toward $12-21 billion by 2030.

Beyond power generation, Doosan's fuel cell technology addresses the critical energy-water nexus through desalination applications, where integrated SOFC-powered reverse osmosis systems can provide both electricity and fresh water using waste heat recovery. As water scarcity intensifies globally and energy-intensive desalination becomes essential infrastructure, Doosan's fuel-flexible systems provide a carbon-neutral solution that most investors haven't connected to the broader water crisis investment theme. The company's technology perfectly fits dual-purpose water-power plants that show 30% higher efficiency than segregated systems.

Trading at just £5 billion market cap, Doosan represents a forgotten Korean industrial stock despite sitting at the center of energy transformation. The company's fuel-flexible technology captures immediate natural gas revenue while positioning for eventual hydrogen commercialization, offering asymmetric upside as a tiny player in what could become an $18 billion fuel cell market by 2030. Unlike pure-play hydrogen stocks that depend on uncertain infrastructure timing, Doosan generates cash flow today from traditional fuel cells while building SOFC capacity for tomorrow's hydrogen economy.

• Production Ramp Validation: Doosan Fuel Cell's Q4 2025 earnings (expected February 2026) will provide the first full quarter of data from its July-launched commercial SOFC production facility, offering critical validation of manufacturing scale-up and cost targets. With the facility designed for 50MW annual capacity using Ceres technology, investors will scrutinize production yields, unit economics, and order book conversion rates that could justify the massive SOFC investment or expose execution risks in this nascent technology transition.

• Singapore Data Center SOFC Deployment Success: DayOne's 20MW Singapore data center represents the first commercial SOFC deployment in Asia's hyperscale market, with Phase I going live in 2026 as a proof-of-concept for hydrogen-based data center power. Success here could trigger a domino effect across Asia-Pacific's 68 GW pipeline of data center projects under construction, potentially positioning Doosan as the regional SOFC leader while demonstrating real-world viability of fuel cell technology for AI infrastructure power demands.

• North American Data Center SOFC Penetration Acceleration: CICC projects 0.5-1.25 GW annual SOFC installations in North American data centers from 2026-2030, driven by SOFC's 90-day delivery advantage over 2-3 year gas turbine lead times. With 50% of the 68 GW US pipeline expected to be off-grid projects, Doosan's established North American presence through its phosphoric acid fuel cell business positions it to capture meaningful market share as hyperscalers prioritize rapid deployment over traditional power infrastructure constraints.

• UK Hydrogen Allocation Round Results and Infrastructure Milestones: The UK's HAR3 (2025) and HAR4 (2026) allocation rounds will distribute up to 1.5 GW of electrolytic hydrogen capacity, with projects coming online 2027-2031 and creating the first substantial hydrogen infrastructure for Doosan's fuel-flexible SOFCs. Success in securing supply agreements or partnerships with HAR winners could provide long-term revenue visibility while validating the transition from natural gas to hydrogen operation that underpins Doosan's investment thesis.

• European Hydrogen Backbone Network Completion: Europe's REPowerEU targets of 20 million tonnes hydrogen capacity by 2030 (10 million domestic, 10 million imported) will create the world's first integrated hydrogen infrastructure, enabling large-scale SOFC deployment across industrial and power generation applications. Doosan's early SOFC manufacturing position could capture significant European market share as the hydrogen backbone connects production hubs to demand centers, transitioning SOFCs from natural gas bridge technology to core hydrogen economy infrastructure by 2030-2032.

• Global Water Crisis Infrastructure Transformation: The convergence of worsening water scarcity, energy transition mandates, and proven SOFC-desalination integration will create a new infrastructure category worth hundreds of billions by 2035. Doosan's dual-purpose fuel cell systems that provide both electricity and fresh water through waste heat recovery could dominate this overlooked market as governments prioritize energy-water nexus solutions, particularly in MENA regions where desalination demand intersects with renewable energy abundance and hydrogen production potential.

Despite launching SOFC production in July 2025, Doosan's hydrogen revenue faces brutal commercial delays as global hydrogen projects face widespread cancellations and cost overruns. European hydrogen infrastructure has been pushed back to 2032-2033, with Dutch backbone projects seeing costs balloon from €1.5 billion to €3.8 billion due to permitting nightmares. While SOFCs can run on natural gas today, green hydrogen retreat poses existential threats to long-term value propositions as developers worldwide trim investments and cancel projects due to economic unviability.

Doosan's desalination thesis confronts complex three-tier regulatory hurdles requiring environmental authorization, maritime concessions, and surface land rights that can stretch approval processes for years. Chile's desalination projects illustrate typical challenges where developers cannot impose easements and must negotiate fragmented land rights directly with multiple parties. Environmental impacts on marine ecosystems create additional opposition, while many water-scarce regions lack political stability or financial resources for large-scale fuel cell desalination infrastructure, potentially stranding advanced technology investments.

As a minor player against Bloom Energy's 44% global market share and massive R&D budgets, Doosan risks being overwhelmed if fuel cell adoption accelerates faster than expected. Major competitors like Bloom and Plug Power have increased R&D spending over 15% annually since 2021, while Bloom just commissioned a 10MW California data center facility showcasing scale advantages. If the fuel cell market explodes toward its projected $18 billion by 2030, Doosan's limited resources could result in market share erosion or forced acquisition at suboptimal valuations.