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Doximity is the ‘LinkedIn’ for Doctors and counts more than 80% of registered Physicians in the US as their members. They have hit critical mass in this market establishing powerful network effects. The company makes money by selling advertising space to Pharma companies and hospital systems who wish to market their products and services to the valuable network of doctors. The business model is highly profitable with a long runway for growth ahead over which to compound these superior economics.

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This is a high-growth company. The company has grown sales by a 30% CAGR over the past 5 years and is expected to grow 14% over the coming 5.

Profitability is phenomenally high, boasting free-cash-flow (FCF) margins of 34% in 2024. This speaks to the value and scarcity of the network and leaves the company with significant financial flexibility.

Finally, Doxomity has a clean balance sheet. retain a high cash balance of $750m as of 1Q25 with no debt or future financing needs.

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What is the value of a network? That depends on what those who want access are willing to pay for it. Over 70% of healthcare spending in the US is decided by Doctors. Doximity stands as the gatekeeper between the key decision makers in healthcare and the $4T in annual US healthcare spend.

They have 80% of registered physicians in the US and 90% of graduating medical students already on the platform. The company has critical mass here, establishing powerful network effects and a key competitive moat.

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DOCS has worked tirelessly for the last 15 years to build the largest national network of doctors and we are only begging to reach the full monetisation potential. The company has several levers for growth;

Market Growth: Digital advertising penetration in healthcare is expected to continue to grow.
Growing The Network: Expanding the network to include Dentists, Physical Therapists, Psychologists, and Pharmacists.
New Customers: Despite boasting industry-leading ROI, DOCS accounts for just 4% of industry marketing budgets leaving significant room for growth.
Monetisation of Telehealth: Doximity currently has a number of telehealth solutions it offers for free. The is room to monetise this usage in the future.

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Continued Recover In Core Market

At its core, Doximity is driven by digital pharmaceutical marketing spend which has been challenged by a tougher operating environment through 2023/24. This market has only begun to recover as of the 4Q24 earnings report, further affirmation of this recovery will be a positive for the stock.

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Execution On New Growth Levers

As Doximity matures, they have the option to exercise new monetisation strategies; New Customers, New Members, and Telehealth. Successful execution will give investors greater confidence in the growth runway ahead for Doximity.

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Financial Optionality

Doximity prints more cash than they know what to do with. With FCF margins north of 30% and a cash balance of $750m (1Q25), the company retains the options to conduct platform-enhancing M&A, invest organically, issue a dividend, or buy back shares. Importantly, it has the freedom to allocate capital without having to rely on the capital markets.

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Evolving healthcare regulations and stricter data privacy standards could lead to higher compliance costs, potential legal risks, and operational constraints if Doximity does not adapt effectively.

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With most users based in the U.S., any adverse changes in healthcare policy, reimbursement models, or physician engagement could significantly impact user growth and revenue generation.

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One of the biggest risks is a deterioration in ROI. Doxmity has an industry-leading return on marketing spend of ~11x for their Pharma customers and this is the main driver of revenue growth. The company already has the majority of doctors on the platform so as they continue to sell more ads the engagement (and subsequent return) on those ads may go down. The company estimates they can increase add penetration by 5x before seeing any deterioration. This is a key metric for investors to watch.

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Doximity is transitioning from a 'white glove' service model to 'self-service'. This follows a loss of competitiveness with other self-service online platforms in 1Q24. Management still believes they have leading ROI but their high-touch service involves many meetings with clients' marketing teams and creates a lot of friction vs a simple self-service program where clients can allocate spend when they want. Business model changes pose a risk and management has assured investors on earnings calls that they will move slowly, only rolling the new model out incrementally and taking learnings forward. This partially de-risks the transition.

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Doximity holds and produces a lot of cash, potentially more than they can invest organically. For a company at this stage of their lifecycle, the natural option would be strategic M&A but it is not clear exactly what that would look like. The easiest fit would be broadening their telehealth portfolio of solutions and deepening physician engagement with the platform, they recently bought a scheduling tool called AMiON.

Share buybacks and dividends are always options for management.

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Digital accounts for ~35% of to total marketing spend in healthcare and DOCS have ~20% market share of this digital segment. The other 65% of industry spend is allocated primarily to medical reps and physical medical journals.

In the online segment, Doximity faces competition from a number of online medical journals and educational websites such as Web MD, Mayo Clinic, Healthline, Medscape etc.

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Doximity is HIPAA-compliant and employs stringent measures to protect user data and ensure that patient-doctor communications are secure. The company regularly audits and updates its security systems to ensure compliance with healthcare regulations. Being able to communicate in a HIPAA-compliant manner through text or video vastly increases the usability of the platform for formal communication between doctors allowing physicians to discuss patients and make referrals.

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