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Evolv: Generating Shareholder Returns Through A Safer World

Transforming everyday security into lasting value with AI-powered, touchless screening that creates safer spaces and drives robust shareholder returns.

NASDAQ:EVLV
$8.36-0.24%
Updated: Aug 15, 2025
Technology
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Bull & Bear Case

An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.

Bull Case

Door Opener

Evolv’s smart security tech is set to win a big slice of a fast-growing market.

Proven Recurring Revenue Model

Subscription revenue keeps coming in, with customers sticking around and expanding.

Wide Coverage

Strong adoption in schools, hospitals, stadiums shows the tech works everywhere.

Bear Case

Entry Risk

Shifting to direct sales might hurt profits if it’s not managed carefully.

Alarm Competition

Big security names or tech firms could launch rival products and eat into market share.

Red Tape Risk

Regulatory hurdles may slow growth and drive up costs for operations.

Executive Summary

Generating Returns Through A Safer World

Evolv is a fast-growing security technology business disrupting a $2B TAM with a revolutionary product. The company has pioneered the biggest change in event security with their touchless scanners. These allow guests to enter seamlessly without emptying their bags whilst using sensors and cameras to scan distinctly for weapons.

EVLV are one of the few SPACs to come to market and beat unit projections, handily growing revenues north of 50% since coming to market in 2021. The company are solving a real customer problem by dramatically increasing throughput while enhancing public safety with superior threat detection. The company is growing rapidly from a small revenue base to a huge TAM with profitability imminent setting the scene for stock returns.

Investment Thesis

Overview of buy and sell case of the business.

Why Invest?

Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.

AI-Powered Security Positioned for Expansive Growth

Evolv Technologies is redefining physical security with AI-driven, non-invasive screening that allows people to pass through at a natural walking pace. The global concealed weapons detection market is forecast to nearly double from $2.5 billion in 2025 to $4.8 billion by 2033 (8% CAGR), while the broader security screening market is expected to grow from $9.92 billion to $13.80 billion by 2030 (6.8% CAGR).

This places Evolv in the sweet spot of a $30+ billion global security market. With over 3 billion visitors already screened and more than 1,000 customers worldwide, the company has proven its technology works , and scales.

Recurring Revenue Model with Demonstrated Customer Loyalty

Evolv’s Security-as-a-Service model creates predictable revenue streams and keeps customers engaged long term. Annual Recurring Revenue reached $110.5 million in Q2 2025, up 27% year-over-year. Recurring subscriptions now represent over 70% of total revenue, providing high visibility into future performance. Strong retention is reflected in the fact that half of Q1 2025 business came from existing customers. While a move to more direct sales briefly pressured gross margins, it sets the stage for improved unit economics, a strategy that has driven strong profitability for comparable technology providers.

Expanding Footprint Across Key Sectors

Adoption is accelerating across education, healthcare, sports, entertainment, and corporate environments. Notable deployments include FIFA Club World Cup 2025, 20 of the largest U.S. school districts, and over 500 hospitals. The technology meets a growing need for more effective, dignified security in high-traffic areas where traditional screening often falls short. Recent multi-million-dollar contracts and renewals, from sports franchises to major hospital groups, reinforce the market’s readiness to scale Evolv’s solution.

Catalysts

The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.

Near term
  • FIFA Deployment: Installing over 100 units at 12 FIFA stadiums will spotlight Evolv’s ability to handle huge crowds and serve as a global reference for future events.

  • Major Wins: New deals in education and healthcare, and big contract renewals, will show real demand and wider acceptance of Evolv’s tech.

Medium term
  • Cash Milestone: Reaching cash flow positivity and higher EBITDA margins by year-end will highlight business model strength and operational efficiency.

  • Global Reach: Expanding internationally and launching new AI products will open up bigger markets and deepen relationships with customers.

Long term
  • Market Lead: Strengthening its role as the top AI security provider could prompt major partnerships and boost Evolv’s premium status.

  • Broader Play: Moving into new areas like perimeter security or analytics will unlock even more growth and increase overall customer value.

Key Risks

Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.

Margin Squeeze

As Evolv shifts from third-party distribution to direct sales, profit margins are feeling the pressure, Q2 2025 adjusted gross margin dropped to 55% due to a $1.8 million inventory reserve. While management sees this as a path to higher gross profit in the long run, it means earnings may look weaker until the transition is fully executed, making clear investor communication especially important during this period.

Competition With Established Players

Well-funded security giants and leading tech companies are closely watching the AI-powered security space. If established players like Motorola or new tech entrants launch competing products or buy up innovative startups, Evolv could face stiff competition and pricing pressure, so staying ahead with ongoing R&D and deepening customer relationships is critical.

Regulatory Risk

Operating in a heavily regulated industry means Evolv is constantly under the microscope, recently resolving investigations by the DOJ and FTC but still facing ongoing scrutiny. Evolving privacy laws and stricter security standards could force expensive product updates or slow new deployments. Success in maintaining certifications and adapting to global compliance requirements will be crucial for protecting both growth opportunities and reputation.

Follow the Experts

Quickly navigate key insights from industry experts and leverage their knowledge and market intelligence.

Pounding The Table Stocks profile

Pounding The Table Stocks

Stocks Commentator

800 audience

Expert Insights

podcasts
"You will see them at all the stadiums, Six Flags etc, and they just continue to grow"
Stoic Point profile

Stoic Point

Evolv Investor

1.4k audience

Expert Insights

podcasts
"It is high quality with a high degree of misunderstanding"
John Gonzalez profile

John Gonzalez

7News Reporter

5k audience

Expert Insights

x
"In the first year of Evolv scanners, no guns were brought to Prince William County Schools, with a 93% clearance rate. In year two, they will be used at all varsity boys basketball and football games"
Graham Schroeder profile

Graham Schroeder

Retail Investor

1k audience

Expert Insights

x
"We need to protect our youth and our schools from these threats from ever happening again. All school districts need to add @EvolvTechnology Express weapon detection sensors in every building"

Investor Materials

Access the most recent investor updates published by the company.

Company Materials

Evolv Technology Unveils High-Speed Weapons Detection System for Bags and Personal Safety App

Article

Evolv to launch new physical and digital security products at Global Security Exchange (GSX) conference New bag scanner does not require removal…...

Evolv Technology Reports Second Quarter Financial Results

PDF

Evolv technology

Why Traditional Image Quality Specifications Can Be Outdated for Modern AI-Driven Security X-Ray Systems

Article

By recognizing the need for updated standards—focused on the capabilities of AI rather than legacy metrics—we can help ensure that security X-ray systems are assessed in a way that reflects their true value.

Evolv Technology Appoints John Kedzierski as Chief Executive Officer, President, and Director

PDF

Evolv Announces Resolution of FTC Inquiry

PDF

External Insights

A curated collection of third-party content relevant to the company and sector to help inform your investment decision.

Security Technology

Team

Meet the experienced professionals leading our organization

Anil Chitkara - undefined

Anil Chitkara

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Mike Ellenbogen

What the Pro's Are Asking

Here are the questions that professional investors are asking before making an investment decision.

What are the key risks?

This is a new company with a new technology that is currently more expensive than existing solutions. The risk is that Evov fails to gain meaningful traction and can’t achieve the sufficient scale needed to compete effectively on cost.

The key caveat to this is that we are at under $100m in revenue and even a relatively small portion of the total pie could offer meaningful upside to investors.

Can the company service its demand?

Evolv has signed an agreement with their contract manufacturer, Columbia Technology, to offload the sale of hardware in exchange for a license fee. This means, for half of their business, EVLV no longer have to fund the capital-intensive manufacture of the product and will now only generate higher margin license fees and SaaS revenues which require significantly less upfront capital. This in effect removes a key government on growth allowing the company to service the demand available.

What about the FTC/ SEC investigation?

Evolv Technology has resolved a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) inquiry into its past marketing claims without admitting wrongdoing or incurring monetary penalties. The FTC did not challenge the effectiveness of Evolv's AI-based security products; the inquiry focused solely on historical marketing descriptions. As part of the resolution, Evolv offered a limited group of K-12 education customers the option to cancel their contracts within a 60-day period. On 23rd January the company announced that no customers had exercised their contract cancellation rights provided by the resolution. The vast majority of the cancellation rights available to this group of customers are scheduled to expire by March 14, 2025.

How do we know the technology works?

No technology is infallible but the long list of blue chip customers and resellers is a testament to the efficacy of the tech. Investors can have some confidence that these firms have all conducted their own due diligence. In the first four weeks of back-to-school in the US, Evolv had at least four instances of catching weapons at schools and preventing shootings (that we know of, as most go unreported to the public).

Is there any competition in this new technology?

An Italian company called CEIA dominates the legacy metal detection industry and has come to market with a new product, Opengate, to compete with Evolv. This is significantly cheaper, ~$40k over 4 years vs $90k for Evolv but lacks threat location detection, interactive AI, and machine learning. CEIA will likely continue to dominate the market as they already have relationships with the existing customer base and their price point is better suited for the mass market, especially in education which is highly cost-sensitive. Simple economies of scale should dictate that they will continue to benefit from a cost advantage.

Importantly, this is a huge market and with a revenue base below $100 million, it will not take a lot of move the needle for Evolv. Even if they garner only modest market share in the broader $20B TAM the potential returns could still be huge.