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Fresnillo plc is the world’s largest primary silver producer and Mexico’s top gold miner, operating eight mines nationwide. With a diversified portfolio of underground and open-pit operations, the company is at the forefront of silver and gold production, benefiting from strong metal prices and a robust asset base. Its exploration pipeline includes advanced projects in Mexico and other Latin American countries, securing future production growth.

From an investment perspective, Fresnillo offers a unique mix of stable production, operational efficiency, and strong financial performance. In 2024, the company delivered record revenue and EBITDA, supported by higher gold and silver prices, cost optimization, and disciplined capital allocation. Despite near-term production challenges, an attractive dividend yield, solid free cash flow, and potential project expansions make it a compelling long-term investment case.

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Fresnillo is the world’s largest primary silver producer and a significant gold miner, benefiting from strong demand in industrial and investment markets. The global market for precious metals is ~$300B today and is expected to grow between 5-6% over the next 10 years. This will be driven by continued wealth creation and rising demand from industrial applications. Silver is essential for renewable energy, electronics, and 5G infrastructure, while gold demand remains a store of value. The company’s low-cost, high-quality assets provide resilience amid market fluctuations.

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In 2024, Fresnillo generated $906 million in free cash flow, supporting a special dividend payout of $308 million on top of regular dividends. Its net cash position of $458 million underscores financial strength, allowing it to return capital to shareholders while funding exploration and expansion projects.

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The company is investing in brownfield and greenfield projects, including the Rodeo and Orisyvo mines, which could significantly boost production post-2027. Efficiency improvements, including cost-cutting measures and mine plan optimizations, support long-term profitability despite near-term production declines at older assets.

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Higher-than-expected gold production at Herradura

The mine’s revised plan to focus on higher-grade zones has yielded strong results. If this trend continues, it could offset declines in other assets and provide an upside surprise to earnings.

Dividend resilience and potential special payout

With a net cash position and strong free cash flow generation in 2024, investors are watching closely for another potential special dividend announcement, which would reinforce Fresnillo’s shareholder returns.

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Orisyvo and Rodeo projects are moving toward production

These two large gold projects could add 270,000-315,000 oz of annual gold production by the late 2020s, providing Fresnillo with a significant growth engine.

Sustainability and cost-efficiency improvements

Increasing renewable energy usage (already at 80.6% of electricity supply) and further automation in operations could lower costs and improve ESG credentials, supporting long-term profitability.

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Despite recent signals of a more constructive stance on mining under the new Mexican administration, uncertainty remains a major concern. Historically, the government has restricted new open-pit mining concessions and increased taxation and royalty payments, creating challenges for expansion. While Fresnillo is well-established with existing operations, any adverse policy changes—such as higher mining royalties, environmental restrictions, or delays in permitting for expansion projects—could limit long-term growth. Investors are closely watching for updates on land access, water rights, and tax incentives that could impact future projects like Orisyvo and Rodeo.

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Fresnillo’s revenue is highly sensitive to silver and gold prices, which are driven by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, geopolitical tensions, and currency movements. While silver demand is expected to remain strong due to industrial applications in solar panels, 5G networks, and electric vehicles, prices can fluctuate due to market speculation and monetary policy shifts.

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Fresnillo’s San Julián DOB and Ciénega mines are nearing the end of their operational life, raising concerns over production replacement. While the company is developing brownfield projects and accelerating exploration, there is a risk that new reserves may not be identified or developed quickly enough to sustain current production levels.

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Fresnillo is accelerating exploration efforts at key sites, with a particular focus on Guanajuato, Lucerito, and Orisyvo. The company has also started feasibility studies at Rodeo and Tajitos, two promising assets that could bolster silver and gold production post-2027. The recent 2.5% increase in gold reserves at Herradura is a positive signal, but further resource conversion and brownfield expansion will be necessary to avoid long-term output declines.

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The previous administration imposed strict restrictions on new mining concessions, which limited the company’s ability to expand organically. However, early signals from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government suggest a more constructive approach to mining regulation. Investors are closely monitoring whether this translates into faster permitting, tax stability, or streamlined environmental approvals, which could enable Fresnillo to advance its growth projects more efficiently.

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The company has implemented a $40 million efficiency program, reducing contractor costs, optimizing maintenance processes, and leveraging a weaker Mexican peso (which offsets dollar-denominated expenses). Additionally, the San Carlos shaft at Fresnillo mine is expected to lower haulage costs in 2025. Despite these efforts, inflation in energy and labor costs remains a concern, and investors will be watching how Fresnillo manages cost containment while maintaining production levels.

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With a net cash position of $458 million and free cash flow of $906 million in 2024, the company is in a strong position to continue returning capital to shareholders. However, sustainability depends on commodity prices and capital expenditure discipline. If silver or gold prices weaken, Fresnillo may need to adjust its payout ratio to ensure adequate reinvestment in exploration and project development.

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Fresnillo has committed to using 75%+ renewable electricity by 2030, a target it has already surpassed in 2024 (80.6%). It is also increasing the use of municipal wastewater in operations (now at 30.2%), reducing reliance on fresh water. While these initiatives improve ESG credentials and investor appeal, the key challenge is balancing sustainability investments with maintaining competitive production costs. The market is monitoring whether these initiatives will lead to long-term cost reductions or require additional capital expenditures.

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Higher-than-expected gold production at Herradura

The mine’s revised plan to focus on higher-grade zones has yielded strong results. If this trend continues, it could offset declines in other assets and provide an upside surprise to earnings.

Dividend resilience and potential special payout

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Orisyvo and Rodeo projects are moving toward production

These two large gold projects could add 270,000-315,000 oz of annual gold production by the late 2020s, providing Fresnillo with a significant growth engine.

Sustainability and cost-efficiency improvements

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