China’s ADAS Leader
BYD, Geely, and VW China secure long-term chip volume and visibility.
Horizon Robotics: Robot Chip, Not Robot Arm
Look East to Horizon Robotics: China’s AI (and potentially Robotics) Brain
Updated: Jul 17, 2025
Technology
mediumrow
Bull & Bear Case
An overview of the main reasons to invest and the key risks involved.
Bull Case
Robotics Potential
Journey 6 + SuperDrive already usable in future drones, humanoids.
Profitable Core
77% gross margin + licensing growth signals strong path to breakeven.
Bear Case
Customer Concentration
BYD, CARIZON account for 70%+ of revenue.
Market Timing Risk
Urban autonomy, humanoids may take years to scale commercially.
Tech Sovereignty Pressure
Export controls could disrupt chip foundry and IP supply chain.
Investment Thesis
Overview of buy and sell case of the business.
Why Invest?
Key pieces of information about the business that you need to know about.
China’s ADAS Leader, Deeply Embedded in BYD
Horizon has emerged as China’s dominant player in smart vehicle compute platforms, holding over 40% of the domestic ADAS market by 2024. It powers over 310 vehicle models, including those from BYD, China’s electric vehicle juggernaut. Strategic partnerships with OEMs like Geely, SAIC, Chery, and VW China (via JV CARIZON) reinforce Horizon’s role as the AI backbone for China's smart vehicle revolution. More than 8 million cars now use its chips, and that number is projected to exceed 10 million by end-2025.
Robotics Potential via Processing Capability
Horizon’s newest platform, SuperDrive, can execute urban, highway, and parking autonomy with human-like decision-making and fluid obstacle handling. Powered by the Journey 6 chip, it combines radar, camera, and LiDAR input in real time with sub-30W energy consumption. These chips offer the performance profile and flexibility to expand into humanoid robotics, factory automation, and advanced drone systems as those markets mature, particularly within China’s AI industrial policy push.
Catalysts
The key events that could drive investment opportunities and shift markets.
SuperDrive platform enters mass production in Q3 2025, with early rollout across several Chinese cities.
CLSA investor conference and potential analyst upgrades could drive investor awareness and rerating.
Journey chip shipments expected to surpass 10 million units by end-2025, deepening data advantage and ecosystem lock-in.
BYD or Chery humanoid prototypes could adopt Horizon chips, triggering broader robotics recognition.
Horizon becomes default AD/ADAS provider for China’s mainstream EVs, creating a national standard for edge AI compute.
Expansion into non-automotive AI (e.g., drones, logistics robots, humanoids) opens new $100B+ TAM.
Key Risks
Key pieces of information about the business risks that you need to know about.
Customer Concentration
Horizon’s top five customers accounted for 78% of revenue in 2024, with CARIZON (VW JV) alone representing 38%. This leaves the company exposed to churn risk from a few strategic partners, particularly in a consolidating EV market.
Timing of Robotics & Urban Autonomy Adoption
While Horizon’s tech is capable, real-world deployment of urban AVs or humanoid robotics is gated by regulation, infrastructure, and consumer readiness. Delays in these adjacent markets could stretch breakeven timelines or reduce addressable demand in the near term.
Geopolitical Supply Chain Exposure
Horizon relies on TSMC’s 16nm fabs (currently exempt from U.S. restrictions), but future geopolitical escalations could threaten access. Meanwhile, expanding into international markets may face barriers similar to those faced by Huawei and other Chinese tech firms.