The Metals Company: The Next Frontier

TMC controls what may be the world’s largest untapped source of battery metals, 1.6 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules, located in the Clarion Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean. These nodules are naturally enriched with all four essential battery metals: nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. They can be collected without removing overburden or producing tailings, and nearly 100% of the nodule is usable in metal production. With successful pilot processing, proven logistics via Allseas, and defined processing pathways in Japan and the U.S., TMC is progressing from concept to commercialization with unmatched scale and efficiency.

TMC has pivoted from the slow-moving International Seabed Authority (ISA) to a transparent, enforceable U.S. permitting process, and the geopolitical shift is significant. Amid growing concern about China's dominance in critical minerals, the U.S. is supporting domestic and allied efforts to establish new supply chains. TMC’s licensing applications under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act have received strong momentum, with the NOAA moving quickly through approval stages. Government support, regulatory clarity, and long-term offtake partners create a rare alignment of commercial opportunity and national interest.

TMC is on track to be the world’s first commercial deep-sea nodule producer, with Q4 2027 as the projected start of production. With signed partners including Allseas (collection systems) and Korea Zinc (refining and equity investor), TMC is building a vertically integrated, capital-light operation. Its resources have first-quartile production costs and margins exceeding 40%, positioning it as a future price-setter. In a market where demand for battery metals is expected to rise exponentially, TMC’s lead could translate into decades of competitive advantage, especially as policymakers prioritize ESG-aligned, domestic-friendly mineral sourcing.

• Exploration License Certifications by NOAA: U.S. regulators are currently certifying TMC’s exploration license applications under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, with certification expected in Q4 2025. This is a significant regulatory step that validates the project’s legal standing and environmental preparedness.
  
  

• Finalization of Amended U.S. Permitting Rules: NOAA is expected to close the public comment period in September 2025 on proposed changes to streamline seabed mining permits. These revisions would allow commercial recovery applications to proceed concurrently with exploration approvals, accelerating the overall timeline.

• Granting of Commercial Recovery Permit: A critical milestone anticipated in 2026, this permit would authorize TMC to begin full-scale extraction of polymetallic nodules from the NORI-D area. It’s the final step before construction and deployment of collection systems.
  
  

• Offshore Vessel Mobilization & Processing Commitments: A final investment decision with Allseas and PAMCO is expected following permit approvals. This includes funding and construction of offshore collectors and preparation of refining infrastructure in both Japan and the U.S.

• First Production in Q4 2027: TMC aims to achieve first commercial production from NORI-D by the end of 2027. Achieving this would establish the company as the world’s first operating deep-sea nodule producer.
  
  

• Commissioning of U.S. Refining Facilities: In the early 2030s, TMC and Korea Zinc plan to build modular U.S.-based refineries to process nodules into high-value nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and copper cathode products. These facilities will enhance margins and align with U.S. policy goals for critical mineral independence.

TMC is the first company seeking a commercial recovery permit under the U.S. Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA). While the process has clear steps and regulatory timelines, it remains largely untested at this scale. There is a risk that unforeseen legal challenges, shifts in political leadership, or delays in rule finalization could prolong or derail the permit process. A lack of precedent adds uncertainty around the duration and stringency of the environmental impact assessment and public consultation stages, both of which are prerequisites for commercial approval.

The technological and operational challenges of scaling deep-sea mining are large. While TMC has conducted pilot campaigns and partnered with experienced offshore contractor Allseas, moving from demonstration to continuous commercial production is a leap. Any mechanical failures, weather disruptions, or collection inefficiencies could delay ramp-up and inflate costs. Furthermore, integrating offshore logistics with onshore refining capacity in multiple jurisdictions adds coordination complexity and increases the risk of bottlenecks or operational shortfalls during the first years of production.

Despite securing $85M from Korea Zinc and maintaining $120M in liquidity, TMC’s business plan anticipates over $4.4 billion in onshore CapEx, most of which is earmarked for the 2030s. To reach steady-state operations, TMC will need substantial additional capital, and while discussions are ongoing with U.S. agencies for potential support, there is no guarantee of timely or sufficient backing. Absent such support or strategic partnerships, the company may need to return to equity markets, potentially diluting current shareholders and impacting sentiment, especially if market conditions are unfavorable.