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Watches of Switzerland Group PLC is a leading international retailer specializing in luxury watches and jewelry. They have partnerships with major luxury watch brands like Rolex, Omega, Cartier, TAG Heuer, Tudor, and Breitling. They operate renowned retail brands such as Watches of Switzerland, Mappin & Webb, Goldsmiths, and Mayors. The company has a proven track record of creating value - evidenced via high returns on capital and attractive cash flow generation. They have achieved this via the combination of capital allocation (capex investing in showroom expansion, executing on selective M&A), strategic repositioning (shifting their growth focus towards the US luxury market) and capitalizing on the unique \"constrained supply dynamic\" at the high end of luxury watch market (effectively eliminates inventory obsolescence and price discounting risk).

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An indirect way to invest in an iconic brand embedded w/in a private/family-owned company. While Rolex may not always be WOSG's highest ASP brand, it is the best-selling of the \"constrained supply\" brands, contributing ~50% of their watch revenues. Rolex underpins WOSG'S fast-growing used watch business (known as certified pre-owned), and Rolex's perpetual client waiting list provides built-in inventory de-risking. Rolex is a luxury brand that can raise prices at will w/out impacting demand to offset things like CHF appreciation or gold prices. WOSG is well positioned to benefit from Rolex's commitment to expand its production capacity (USD 1bn in a new production facility in Bulle, Switzerland).

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Despite only entering the US in 2017, after just 7 years, WOSG has managed to expand their US revenue base by 8x to >GBP 800 million or 45% of their overall revenues. Showrooms in the US have grown from 20 in 2018 to ~60 at YE25. The US is where WOSG is expected to allocate most of its future growth capex and targeted M&A budget, meaning investors will likely reward them for investing in the US vs the UK. The US market is where WOSG is keen to expand their luxury jewelry business via M&A - in line with the $100m acquisition of Roberto Coin's North American business in 2024.

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This is captured in WOSG LN's current <10x PE Adj. PE and ~5x EV/EBITDA valuation, which discounts: their strong capital allocation track record (generating >20% return on capital employed); their long range strategic plan that earmarks GBP 350-500mil for growth capex and M&A over 2024-28; the recent surprise announcement of a GBP 25 million share buyback in March 2025. The Roberto Coin US acquisition, in particular, seems a good one for WOSG shareholders, with accretive 20% EBIT margins. Net debt is very manageable at 0.7x Adj. EBITDA, with ample borrowing capacity on hand. WOSG's free cashflow generation is underpinned by >18% 4-Wall EBITDA margins and 65-70% conversion.

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Revenue growth driven by roll-out of used watch business

The used watch market has become a viable 2nd product line for WOSG. The Rolex-certified pre-owned segment, which commenced in 2023, is experiencing substantial growth (+50% in 1H25) and will end up being a big chunk of their watch sales (>25%). Rolex CPOs are now online and in 45 showrooms, and the ASP levels are currently above average for new watches brought to market.

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Showroom expansion and bolt-on M&A

WOSG relies on a brick-and-mortar showroom store for much of its distribution. Showroom expansion is expected to continue at a strong base (~20 a year to the 233 base they had at 1H25) in line with their plan for GBP 60-70m of growth capex invested per year. Showroom CapEx relates to new sites and refurb on existing spaces. New footprint expansion involves both multi-brand and mono-brand formats, although it could lean to the former (especially in the US).

Upcoming showroom pipeline in 2025 includes the Old Bond Street Rolex flagship space (7K SQFT), the AP House in Manchester, and a big Rolex boutique in Atlanta (3K SQFT). WOSG is expected to remain active bolting on acquisitions, a strategic initiative that has brought on board several impactful business additions in the past 12 months (Roberto Coin, Hodinkee, Ernest Jones).

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Set for a stock re-rating as WOSG becomes more of a US luxury retailer

If all goes according to plan, the robust growth trajectory of their US-based business should eventually push this to become the company's dominant revenue region (~70%), up from its current 45% share of revenue. The US market is set up well for WOSG to create value -with ASPs in the US much higher for both watches and jewelry and with acquisition possibilities wide open given the \"mom & pop\" fragmented US luxury market. The current <10x PE & 5x EV/EBITDA valuation could position WSOG LN shares well for a \"US driven\" re-rating when the time is right.

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The UK remains WOSG's core luxury watch market, contributing 55% of their revenue and 158 showrooms. Revenue decline (for UK/Europe) on a constant FX base may have finally turned the corner (+2% in 2Q25, after -4% 1Q25 and -5% reported in FY24). Their UK business has finally moved past the negative drag from the Brexit-driven end of duty-free shopping at UK airports on January 1, 2021. On the plus side, WSOG's exit from Europe (reported w/in the UK segment) should be completed in 1H25, with Copenhagen the last of the 9 mono-brand showrooms closed/divested.

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Most listed UK consumer stocks have been punished in 2025 for their exposure to the UK economy, with elevated concerns about consumption growth + higher interest rates, and potential UK budget-driven austerity. Specific to the Swiss watch industry, sales trends are currently stuck in a contracting mode, with very different growth dynamics between high-end and the rest of the market. For WSOG, this challenging environment has affected their lower/mid UK watch segment (GBP 3-6k ASP). Geopolitical concerns emanating from trade wars are not helpful for export-driven consumer products globally. Some of these macro headwinds are reflected in WOSG LN's weak YTD 2025 share price performance and with their shares trading ~30% below their 52-week high.

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WOSG has yet to release substantial revenue payback or margin operating leverage from annual GBP 70m of growth capex or their expanded showroom footprint. Near-term growth trends have been further clouded by changes in the product mix of the watches sold (e.g., a shift towards lower ASP steel Rolexes) and the top-down pressure on the overall Swiss watch market growth. The reset of both WOSG revenue and margins in January 2024's profit warning could prove helpful for future shareholders as it clears the way for upside risk financial outperformance in 2026-28 (if they can get back to delivering mid-single-digit annual revenue growth + margin attrition).

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The fact that ~70% of their watch revenues come \"constrained supply\" brands (Rolex, Patek Phillipe, Audemars Piguet) remains the key macro defensive weapon for WOSG. This manifests itself in a strong demand > suppply dynamic for WOSG that eliminates inventory, working capital or discounting stresses that overwelm many retailers during more challeng macro environments. This contrained supply luxury market is underpinned by the strong waitlisting/registration of interest dynamic which these special brands bring to the table.

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WOSG's long range plan was dislcosed to the market on November 7th 2023. To get close to achieving this the company will need all of its various initaitves (both organic and inorganic) to fire on all cylinders. This includes their material investment of GBP 350-500 million in showroom expansion and targeted M&A: their huge expectations for the growth (>30% CAGR) in the pre-owned watch market in both the US and UK, and a substantial pick up in growth from their luxury branded jewelry business. All in, their strategy for US expansion holds the key to substantial revenue expansion, with CAGR 20-25% revenue targeted over 2024-2028. Their long range plan expectations do need to be updated to exclude the 4-6% of group sales they had projected for Europe prior to exiting that region.

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The company has untapped borrowing capacity of >GBP 200 million and can extend their leverage from the current 0.7x Net debt/Adj. EBITDA to 3x according to their debt covenants. Additionalty WOSG generates GBP 100 million of annual profits which until the very recent share buyback announcement were 100% earmarked to support their growth investments.

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The company is confident that their relationship with Rolex that dates back to 1919 will stand the test of time. This issue was brought into the limelight in August 2023 when Rolex bought Bucherer, WOSG's main Swiss retail competitor. On the day of this announcement the market reacted violently (shares -25%) to this news, fearing potential disintermediation risk. Since then the market has come to accept that this was unlikely a hostile move by Rolex towards WOSG but one motivated by continuity as this acquisition resolved a succession issue stemming from the death of the Bucherer's Swiss founder. Since then the relationship between Rolex and WOSG appears tighter then ever - evidenced by the certified pre-owned JV they launched together in 2023 and the opening of the Bond street flagship London Rolex store on March 14th of this year.

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Was jumpstarted by their recent acquisition of Roberto Coin's North American wholesale focused business (the 6th largest jeweler with ~$140m of annual revenues) which propels the jewelry segment to 12-15% of WOSG's overall revenues. M&A seems a natural route for them to expand further in the US given the fragmented \"mom & pop\" nature of the business there (Betteridge acquired in 2022 was another example of this). WOSG is attracted by the fact that luxury jewelry ASP's are much higher in the US (>USD 5k) vs. the UK (USD 1.5k).

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