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The franchise value of EJZ's low-cost airline revolves around the dominant European short-haul market position in slot-constrained airports (>80% of their capacity), and the valuable 1,100 routes they fly across 35 countries. Testament of their franchise = ~90% of available seats were filled in each of the past 2 years, and prices have held steady (with +1% ticket yields in 2024). Capital allocation holds the key to generating above-industry-average revenue growth. For easyJet, capital allocation comes via increased capacity (+5% p.a. targeted medium-term), which expands their airport network to new destinations and by optimizing fleet usage towards better routes. Improved performance in winter reporting periods (1Q and 2Q for them) is real-time proof of their capital allocation skill.

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The ongoing upgrade to EZJ's fleet is the key value creation lever for this stock over the medium term. This upgrade entails replacing their ageing A319 planes (1/3 of the current fleet) with more profitable new A320/321 neo aircraft, and is central to EZJ's strategic fleet plan to increase their overall fleet size by 14% by 2028. The upgrade to A320/321 neo aircraft offers increased seat capacity, material fuel efficiencies (+20-30%) and strongly enhanced productivity. The financial upside to EZJ's projects from the A319 planes being replaced is shockingly substantial = increasing the airline's PBT per seat earned by a further GBP 2 or by 50% from the airline's GBP 4.10 of PBT per seat at YE24. These fleet upgrade benefits are expected to become more visible in the 2026 results.

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Cross-selling holiday packages (mostly flights + hotel rooms) to EZJ's 90 million captive airline passengers was a strategic no-brainer. This business has posted 47% CAGR in the past 2 years, with +25% customer growth expected in 2025. It has 3 million customers and is already generating EBITDA margins in line with the rest of the group at 15%. Its capital-light nature is a boon to EZJ'S cash flow generation, and it is ahead of schedule in meeting its target of contributing >25% of the group's PBT.

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easyJet's holiday's growth and decent capacity growth in 2025

Their holiday package business is expected to remain the revenue growth engine within EZJ as the low attachment (connected to airline tickets sold) offers tremendous upside, and they are projecting +25% growth in customers in 2025. In terms of capacity, EZJ is planning for 8% growth in 2025, with a new airport soon to open in Southend, short-haul opportunities in the summer of 2025 in Linate and Rome Fiumicino, and some new winter sun network points in North Africa and the Canaries.

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Value creation realized via planned fleet upgrade

easyJet's schedule of airline deliveries/fleet expansion is well mapped out for investors in the fleet plan up to 2028. EZJ projects that this fleet plan has the potential to uplift profits substantially via expanded capacity, higher productivity and improved fuel efficiency. Capacity wise, this plan sees the size of their fleet expanding by 14% and its average seat gauge increasing by 7% from 2024 levels.

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Substantial efficiency improvements eventually come through

EZJ's strategic long-term focus is to better leverage its key assets (passengers & fleet) to drive improved margins. The advantage of having a network of Europe's slot-constrained airports is also with a high non-fuel expense base (like airport/ground/crew). easyJet needs to deliver better efficiency (+4-5% point uplift in EBITDA margin) from this network in order to reach their stated GBP 1Billion pre-tax profit target.

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Airlines are viewed as a highly cyclical business, making the sector vulnerable to sharp economic downturns, geopolitical conflicts and global pandemics. The sector frequently gets discounted for any top-down risk that shakes consumer demand or an international or regional-based travel appetite. The airline industry is very exposed to oil/jet fuel price shocks - fuel costs are EJZ's single highest expense line (even with them hedging much of their exposure to this).

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The fact that Airbus (and Boeing) are experiencing delivery delays to all their customers is no secret. This is likely to present a challenge to EZJ achieving Phase 1 of their plan to upgrade/increase their fleet size by 15% by 2028 to 395 aircraft. This 2028 phase entails a massive order with Airbus of ~100 NEO family aircraft expected to be delivered in the next 4 years. EZJ is sticking to their 395-plane fleet expectations for 2028 and is optimistic given the back-loaded schedule of expected deliveries (30 in '27 and 43 in '28). Phase 2 of their fleet plan extends out to 2034 and targets a fleet size of 458 aircraft.

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EJZ's starting point is fairly decent, being a modest net cash position and with > GBP 2bn of untapped borrowing capacity at its disposal. The forthcoming capex ramp relates to their ambitious plans for fleet upgrade/expansion as they target owning 75% of new planes vs leasing them. Based on current financial performance, this looks like a non-issue for EZJ in 2025 and 2026, as they can probably fund these years through internal funds and existing credit facilities. It is in 2027 and 2028 when new aircraft deliveries significantly ramp up that they will need to crank up cash flow generation levels and tap into further debt funding.

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So far, EZJ is cross-selling packages to 3 million of their passengers, focusing on all-inclusive packages, mostly 4-5-star hotel bookings (5,000 hotels). >60% of the bookings are on a direct basis with the hotels. Acquisition costs are low, and the majority of the bookings are via unpaid channels - an approach the UK OTA operators (who charge a 10-30% commission) cannot replicate. EZJ's passenger base is well suited to future package holiday cross-selling, as only 12% of their seats were sold to 3rd party OTA's (in 2023).

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The swap of their A319s for new A320neo planes is a key catalyst for value creation (in 2026 and beyond). The cost benefits offered via this switchover to A320neo aircraft are material and across the board: +19% more seats, +24% reduced fuel burn, +15% productivity, +5% airport/ground handling/navigation efficiencies.

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EZJ substantially hedges both their exposure to fuel prices and USD exposure. For both, this hedges their exposure over the next 3 half-year periods, with more hedged in the earlier periods (75-80% of exposure) and less in the furthest period (25%). For fuel, these hedges typically protect levels meaningfully above current spot rates and for USD at current or slightly higher FX levels vs. the current spot rate.

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Their balance sheet net cash is the first line of defense. On top of this, they currently have USD 2.1bn of untapped borrowing capacity, and have an investment grade credit rating (BBB S&P) if needed. EZJ also makes use of aircraft lease funding, with 46% of the current fleet leased.

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EZJ 's model is equipped to show resilience and adaptability in the face of an airline cyclical downturn, optimising their airport network flexibility and their dynamic ticket pricing model to reallocate capital as much as possible.

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Jan De Raeymaeker serves as the CFO of easyJet, having joined the company on January 20, 2025. Prior to easyJet, he was the CFO of Lineas, Europe's largest private rail freight operator, overseeing finance, legal, and purchasing teams. Before that, he served as CFO of Brussels Airlines, playing a key role in transforming its finance function and achieving significant passenger growth. Earlier in his career, Jan held management roles at Arthur D. Little, a global management consulting firm.

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